Job approval numbers for Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are in freefall. But as we have seen back on this side of the hemisphere, the public's interest in these political scandals can be easily overlooked if the underlying economic conditions are favorable. For instance, voters were apathetic when the House introduced impeachment proceedings at the end of against Bill Clinton for perjury and abuse of power. And Clinton's perjury scandal was indefensible upon discovery of that infamous Blue Dress.
The average citizen, then busily counting their chips from the dot-com casino, were disinterested in Clinton's wrongdoings because the economy was booming. Clinton remained in office, and his Democratic party gained seats in the mid-term elections.
Therefore, Abe's scandal is more likely a referendum on the public's frustration with the failure of Abenomics. When Shinzo Abe regained the office of Prime Minister during the last days ofhe brought with him the promise of three magic arrows: The first arrow targeted unprecedented monetary easing, the second was humongous government spending, and the third arrow was aimed at structural reforms.
The Prime Minister assured the Japanese that his "three-arrow" strategy would rescue the economy from decades of stagnation. Unfortunately, these three arrows have done nothing to improve the life of the average Japanese person. Instead, they have only succeeded in blowing up the debt, wrecking the value of the yen and exploding the Bank of Japan's BOJ balance sheet. For years Japanese savers have not only seen their yen denominated deposits garner a zero percent interest rate in the bank; but even worse, have lost purchasing power against foreign currencies.
The yen has lost over 30 percent of its value against the US dollar since Abe regained power in Meanwhile, the Japanese economy is still entrenched in its "lost-decades" morass; and growing at just over one percent year over year in Q1 Japan's dramatic slowdown in growth, which averaged at an annual rate of 4. In addition to this, higher health care costs from an aging population have driven government health care spending to move from 4.
Incredibly, this low-growth and debt-disabled economy has a Year Note that yields around zero percent; thanks only to BOJ purchases. Prime Minister Abe's plan to address this recent scandal-driven plummet in the polls is to increase government spending even more and have the BOJ simply step up the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out press. In other words, he is going to double down on the http://maillotpsg2013.info/ich-habe-geld-in-das-telefon-ueber-eine-automatische.php two arrows that have already failed!
However, the Japanese people appear as though they have now had enough. And the nation would never be able to service this debt if the BOJ didn't own most of it. The sad truth is that the only viable alternative for Japanese Government Bonds Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out is an explicit or implicit default.
Japan is a paragon to prove that no nation can print, borrow and spend its way to prosperity. Abenomics delivered on all the deficit spending that Keynesians such as Paul Krugman espouse. But where is the growth? Japanese citizens are getting tired of Abenomics and there are some early indications that they may vote people in power that will force the BOJ into joining the rest of the developed world in the direction of normalizing monetary policy.
The reckless policies of global central banks have left investors starving for Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out and forcing Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out out along the risk curve.
But interest rates are set to rise as central banks remove the massive and unprecedented bid on sovereign debt—perhaps even in Japan. A chaotic interest see more shock wave is about to hit the global bond market, which will reverberate across equity markets around the world.
Is your portfolio ready? Michael Pento produces the weekly podcast "The Mid-week Reality Check"is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book "The Coming Bond Market Collapse". This powerful and protracted bull market has made Cassandras look foolish for a long time. Those who went on record predicting that massive central bank manipulation of markets would not engender viable economic growth have been proven correct.
However, these same individuals failed to fully anticipate the willingness of momentum-trading algorithms to take asset prices very far above the underlying level of economic growth.
Nevertheless, there are five reasons to believe that this fall will finally bring stock market valuations down to earth, and vindicate those who have displayed caution amidst all the frenzy. Congress needed to shave two weeks off its August recess in an effort to make headway on raising the debt ceiling, which will hit the absolute limit by mid-October, and how to fund the government past September 30th of this year. Tea-Party Republicans, as well as Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Visit web page, would like to add spending reform riders to the debt limit bill.
Treasury Secretary Http://maillotpsg2013.info/wie-bei-online-casino-zu-gewinnen.php Mnuchin is looking to pass a "clean" bill. If Mnuchin gets his clean debt ceiling bill passed, the show-down will then move to the appropriations bills used to fund the upcoming fiscal year. For the past few years, Congress has been pushing through last minute continuing resolutions, rather than passing a budget, to provide funding at a rate of the previous year's funding.
Not being able to make progress on either of these measures will lead to a government shutdown that could leave markets and Trump's tax reform agenda in a tail spin. The Donald may find it very convenient to "Wag the Dog" before the year closes out. What is needed is a "fantastic" distraction from his failure to reach an agreement to repeal and replace Obamacare and to push through with a tax reform package.
Also, an assault on Kim Jong-un's nuclear facilities would go a long way in reducing the media's obsession with Russiagate. The President and his administration held an emergency meeting on July 4th after North Korea fired its first ICBM into the Sea of Japan.
Trump promised that a nuclear strike against the U. Trump also urged China to, "put a heavy move on North Korea" and to "end this nonsense once and for all. On June 7th the spread between China's 10 and 1 year Sovereign bond yields became negative. This was only the second time since that such an inversion occurred, and this time around it became the most inverted in history.
An inverted yield curve, no matter what country it occurs in, is a sign of severe distress in the banking system and almost always presages a recession. A recession, or even just a sharp decline in China's GDP growth, would send shock waves throughout emerging markets and the global economy. Indeed, on July 17th the major indexes in China all plunged the most since December due to investor fears over tighter monetary and economic controls from Beijing.
If the yield curve remains inverted into the fall, look for exacerbated moves to the downside in global markets. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, stated in late June that deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary forces.
This simple statement sent bond yields soaring across the globe in anticipation of his inevitable official taper announcement that could be made as soon as September 7th. German year Bund yields are still about basis points below the ECB's inflation target, and about bps below implied nominal GDP. This means when Mr. Draghi actually starts removing his massive bid from the European bond markets yields should spike suddenly and in dramatic fashion—regardless of the pervasive weak economy.
Rapidly rising borrowing costs on Europe's over-leveraged economy would cause investors to worry about future growth prospects and send high-frequency front-runners scrambling for the narrow exit door at once. Now, after QE has been wound down to zero and four rate hikes have taken place, the Fed will likely announce the actual start date for the selling of its balance sheet at its September FOMC meeting.
The problem is that global central banks are tightening monetary policy as the economy weakens. This would exacerbate the move higher in bond yields caused by the ECB's Tapering. That could be enough to send the passive ETF investing sheeple jumping off a cliff en masse. The end Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out central bank monetary accommodations, which is coming to a head this fall, is the primary reason to believe the odds for a significant stock market correction could be just a couple of months away.
Adding to this perilous situation is the record amount of NYSE margin debt outstanding, along with the fact that institutional investors have just 2. In other words, investors are levered up and all-in. Since the election of Donald Trump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out reached a record high one out of every four trading days.
The average days without such a decline is and respectively. This market is overvalued, overextended and extremely dangerous! Therefore, it is very likely this long-overdue market correction could be worse than the ordinary 20 percent decline.
The upcoming stock market toboggan ride is not only starting from the second highest valuation in history, but also with the balance sheets of the Fed and Treasury already severely impaired. In other words, there just isn't a lot of room left to lower interest rates or to Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out up huge deficits in an attempt to Online-Casino-Spiel um echtes Geld pull the economy out of its downward spiral.
It is time to put a wealth preservation strategy in place before the fall arrives. Illinois officials have been frantically working on a massive 5-billion-dollar tax increase to stop the major rating agencies from downgrading their debt to junk.
Their last-minute maneuvers increased the personal income tax rate to 4. And the state's annual pension obligation is now looming around 25 percent of its budget. But Illinois is not alone in its fiscal woes.
The salient issue here is not just that tax receipts are short of liabilities but that asset returns are falling far short of their projected targets. This highlights the fundamental flaw in governmental pension accounting: This process expects that all returns will mirror the best years and doesn't consider market volatility, let alone a recession and bear market.
This flawed and deceptive assumption model has Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out other states, such as Ohio, to have unfunded liabilities over six times their estimated state-only tax revenues.
Optimistic actuarial assumptions have proven to be too optimistic about such factors as employee longevity and enrollment in early retirement programs.
Pension fund managers have been underweight U. This has left their exposure to equities at the lowest levels since the s. Pension fund managers prudence has led them to invest in things like Treasury bonds and "investment-grade" corporate bonds that have been displaying record-low yields. Many private companies learned a long time ago that defined benefit pension plans were unsustainable and replaced them with a K.
Employees can save tax-free and invest in a group of boilerplate options. And while there is a risk that these plans will not provide for the employee in retirement, the risk is on the employee and not the employer. Public sector unions that represent a reliable voting block have kept defined benefit pensions alive and well for government employees.
It's easy for politicians to make these kinds of promises because the burden to pay the bill doesn't fall directly on the employee, but rather on Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out broader tax base. But the truth is your tax bill could explode as local governments bail out these insolvent pension plans--just ask the taxpayers of Illinois.
New Jersey and Maine had to close state parks over part of the July 4th weekend. Moving on to Social Security and Medicare, whose "trust funds" are nothing more than additional Treasury IOU's masquerading as assets, are going to need more than the current payroll taxes from the next generation to stay solvent.
The cost of The Social Security Trust Fund OASDI has exceeded non-interest income since And this phantom interest income is allowing it to be accounted for as cash flow positive thru But beginning intotal income is projected to be less than expenditures, generating annual deficits click here drawing down on the Trust Fund itself until it is depleted in Things are going to get much worse before they get any better.
This is because during the next economic crisis there is a good chance that both stock and bond prices could tumble. Falling GDP growth would not only send earnings and equities into a tailspin; but given the record Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out of debt already in existence, the overwhelming supply of new issuance resulting from the fiscal imbalance should send bond prices cratering and yields soaring.
This would occur just in time to hit employees' k plans. Janet Yellen has promised that there will not be another crisis in read article lifetime. The truth is central banks will never be able to let go of their humongous and unprecedented interest rate suppression. This current attempt to normalize interest rates will cause market and economic chaos of unmatched proportions.
Sadly, the broken public and private pension plans have condemned the Fed to an endless pursuit of asset bubbles and inflation to portray the illusion of solvency. Citigroup's Economic Surprise Index just hit its lowest level since August But this level of disappointment has ironically Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out the Fed to step up its hawkish monetary rhetoric.
The truth is that the hard economic data is grossly missing analyst estimates to the downside as the economy inexorably grinds towards recession. This anemic growth and inflation data should have been sufficient to stay the Fed's hand for the rest of this year and cause it to forgo the unwinding of its balance sheet. But that's not what's happening.
But why is the Fed suddenly in such a rush to normalize interest rates and its balance sheet? Perhaps it is because Ms. Yellen wants to fire Trump before she hears his favorite Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out, "you're fired," when her term expires in early It isn't a coincidence that these Keynesian liberals at the Fed started to ignore the weak data concurrently with the election of the new President. A Q1 GDP print of just 1.
And a lack of evidence for a Q2 rebound in the data hasn't done so either. April housing data was very weak: New home sales in the single family category were down And even though there was a small bounce back in housing data in May, Pending Home Sales have fallen three months in Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out row and were down 0. Retail sales dropped, 0. It's not just economic growth indicators that are disappointing, but also evidence of disinflation abound everywhere.
Commodity prices are also illustrating signs of deflation. Further evidence of deflation is seen in the fact that the spread between long and short-term Treasury Yields are contracting. The Household Survey is a leading indicator for the Establishment Survey and the overall employment condition.
Wall Street's currently favorite narrative is one of strong earnings growth. But according to FactSet, nearly half of Q2's projected 6. Excluding this sector, EPS growth is projected to be just 3.
The economy should continue to move further away from the Fed's growth, and inflation targets as its previous monetary tightening starts to bite. But one last nail in the coffin for Fed hawks will be an NFP report sub 50K. The odds are very high that such a weak print on jobs will occur before the next hiking Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out on Sept.
From there it will turn to panic as the economy and stock market meltdown. And, most importantly, the coming market crash and recession will occur with the balance sheets of the Treasury and Fed already Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out stretched. Hence, an extrication from this recession will not happen quickly or easily.
All of the above makes this the most dangerous market ever. This crash and ensuing economic downturn, which given history, logic and the data should happen soon; will alter the Fed's current stance on monetary policy. But it will happen too late to preclude a very steep decline in GDP. Trump cannot push through his tax cutting agenda rather quickly it may be both Ms. Yellen and the Republicans that find themselves moving out of D. Raise the Inflation Target and Put a Date on It!
That's the direction some high-profile economist and former members on the FOMC want to go. According to these academics, including Narayana Kocherlakota the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from toraising the inflation target just isn't Spielautomaten Spin Palace Casino mit Bonus-Geld. They want to put a time horizon on it as well.
Their rational for doing both actions is to reduce the level of real interest rates, which they somehow believe is the progenitor for viable GDP growth. You see, once the Fed has taken the nominal Fed Funds Rate to zero, there isn't much more Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out to the downside unless these money manipulators assent to negative nominal interest rates. But charging banks to hold excess reserves is fraught with danger, and so far this idea has been eschewed in this country and has been proven ineffectual in Europe.
The next recession could be just around the corner and the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out is thinking about ways to stimulate the economy given the fact that the amount of ammunition--the number of rate cuts until the F.
With very little leeway available to reduce borrowing costs, these mainstream academics want to facilitate more negative real interest rates by ensuring inflation is higher right from the start.
The math is simple: But as to why these Keynesian academics are so convinced a lower real interest rate is better for economic growth is never clearly explained. Probably because it is a nonsensical tenet and the biggest fallacy in all of central bank group think. Their spurious logic dictates that a lower unemployment rate is the primary cause of rising rates of inflation and that a higher rate of inflation is supportive for lowering the unemployment Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out. Exactly how this simple model arrives at that conclusion is never cogently explained; other than the mistaken belief that inflation and growth are synonymous terms.
But history and genuine economics clearly illustrate that inflation does not bring about growth, nor does it necessarily lower the unemployment rate. In fact, a rising rate of inflation often leads to higher rates of unemployment. This is the exact opposite of Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out Phillips Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out dogma held at the Fed, which dictates that a falling unemployment rate is the totality of inflation.
The reality is that the humongous amount of new credit pumped into the system by global central banks has primarily landed in financial assets, not consumer price inflation. Central banks will purchase assets directly from the public or the Treasury instead of through the banking system. In other words, getting new money into the public's hands causing an increase in broad-based money supply and inflation.
The next stock market plunge and concomitant GDP collapse is approaching quickly. The Fed is preparing investors for its ultimate response; which will be to guarantee a higher inflation rate and to put a timestamp on it as well. But those efforts will only vastly exacerbate the stagflation condition suffered by the middle class.
Those that possess a keen insight to the direction of markets are aware of this phenomenon and are moving into precious metals now; while they are still able to afford them. The economic ruse that is run by Communist China is growing bigger by the day. The formula behind what has been the Great Red Engine of global growth is really very simple: Print new money and funnel it through the state-owned banking system in order to entice businesses and individuals to incur a debilitating amount of non-productive debt.
Historically speaking, countries that have utilized this ersatz form of economics have suffered a currency and bond market crisis. But the command and control government of China always seems to be one step ahead of the laws of economics; and has been able to defer the inevitable day of reckoning due to its large currency reserves.
However, those reserves have dwindled as the nation was forced into selling its dollar-based assets and Spielautomaten betrügen Wie an den zu the value of the yuan. The People's Bank of China PBOC has spent trillions of dollars over the past four years doing just that. To aid in propping up the yuan, China has deployed a unique cocktail of regulations and market trickery.
In addition to outright currency manipulation, trading bands and strict capital controls, China has now resorted to simply making up prices for its currency. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System, which is managed by the PBOC, changed the way it values the country's currency each morning and the way it is allowed to fluctuate through the day.
The government currently sets a des 888 Online-Casino-Spielautomaten-Club Club Casino 888 Casino spielen tibetische Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out for the yuan against a basket of currencies for which the yuan is then allowed to fluctuate in value by 2 percent during the day.
You would assume the opening benchmark level would be based on the currency's closing value the day before. This web page the Chinese government contends that the market just isn't getting it right. Therefore, they are introducing a "countercyclical variable".
The omniscient Chinese Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out will now determine sind 888 Casino Casino-Geld Hauptgewinn opening benchmark value of the currency. Because after all, the government of China is great at pretending it has a better view of supply and demand than millions of individuals voting with their wallets each day.
But the currency manipulation doesn't end there. The Chinese government still has the less regulated offshore yuan to contend Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out. Investors that believe the yuan will fall in value will go short the currency outside of China.
This involves borrowing yuan in Hong Kong, swapping it for dollars and then repatriating it back at a more favorable rate. There are risks associated with borrowing the yuan. When these risks rise it can force investors to close out this trade, which has the effect of pushing the yuan higher. Therefore, in order to crush the Yuan bears, China followed up its countercyclical variable by sending margin costs for borrowing the offshore yuan through the roof and forcing a short squeeze.
The overnight CNH Hibor rate, spiked from 5. And with this it appears China's currency will live to die another day.
We are living in a world where market manipulation has reached unprecedented proportions and any vestiges of the free market are extremely hard to find.
This is especially true throughout the developed world. China sets a GDP target and then fudges with the number to ensure its accuracy.
It fabricates economic numbers and is the world leader in the production of alternate facts. Spinning a fairy tale as it pretends to move towards a more market-based system. But to imagine China can repel these economic forces forever would Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out to defy centuries of data that says otherwise.
The offshore Yuan speculators represent the incipient dissolution of confidence in the government and its currency. The Chinese government can only manipulate the message from the market for so long. For example, the US dollar had supreme confidence following WWII and the Bretton Woods agreement. But by the early 's money printing caused the government to abandon the dollar's gold backing, and stagflation soon followed.
Heck, even the Roman Empire couldn't hold go here the forces of inflation forever. This destruction of confidence in governments and their fiat currencies do not happen overnight.
But history this web page clear that markets always win and governments always lose…reality triumphs over fiction. China's fairy tale will come to an end. A pernicious end that will be shared by the Euro and the Dollar as well. Those seeking a much Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out ending will need to park their wealth in gold. The bounce in Treasury yields witnessed after the election of Donald Trump is now decaying in the D.
If the Fed continues to ignore this slow growth and deflationary signal from the bond market and continues along its current rate hiking path, the yield curve will invert by the end of this year and an equity market plunge and a recession is sure to follow.
An inverted yield curve, which has correctly predicted the last seven recessions going back to the late 's, occurs when short-term interest rates yield more than longer-term rates.
Why is an inverted yield curve so crucial in determining the direction of markets and the economy? Because when bank assets longer-duration loans generate less income than bank liabilities short-term depositsthe incentive to make new loans dries up along with the money supply. And when asset bubbles are starved of that monetary fuel they burst. The severity of the recession depends on the intensity of the asset bubbles in existence prior to the inversion. The Federal Reserve has traditionally controlled overnight lending rates between banks.
That all changed when the Fed started to buy longer-term Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities as a result of the Great Recession. Nevertheless, outside of these QE programs, the long end of the yield curve is primarily influenced by the inflationary expectations of investors.
The yield curve inverts when central banks believe inflation is headed higher; but bond investors are convinced of the opposite.
The last two times the yield curve inverted was in the years and This next inversion will occur in the context of record high equity, real estate and bond market valuations that will require another government bailout. However, this time around the recession will commence with the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out sheets of the Fed and Treasury extremely overleveraged right from the start.
As you can see from the chart below, if the year Note yield orange line continues to Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out along its current trajectory; and the Fed plods along with its avowed Dot Plot hiking path blue linethe yield curve should invert around the end of Market chaos and another brutal recession should soon follow.
One of the most popular Wall Street myths is that long-term interest rates rise simply because the Fed is raising the Fed Funds Rate F. This normally occurs because the central bank is trying to catch up to rising inflation and is initially behind the curve. However, later on in the tightening cycle long rates begin to decline as inflation is stamped out of the economy. For example, from June thru June the Fed raised the F. That means the Benchmark Note went up just 50 bps even though the F.
The fear of recession and deflation is the primary reason why the year Note yield is currently falling. It has subsequently raised rates three times and is now most likely already ahead of the curve due to the anemic state of the economy. But, as always, the Fed fails to read the correct economic indicators and is now fixated on the low unemployment rate and its dubious effect on inflation. Some argue that the yield curve won't invert if economic growth stalls because the Fed will then truncate its rate hike path.
And indeed there is a lot of evidence for the Q2 recovery narrative to be proven false. For instance, April data on existing home contract closings declined 2. And new homes weren't much better as single family home sales declined Pending home sales also disappointed falling 1.
Then we had Durable Goods falling 0. These data points highlight the reality that Q2 will not spring higher from the anemic Q1 growth rate. But the problem is that the F. Therefore, even if we get just two more hikes Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out the Fed realizes growth is faltering, that rate will be near 1.
In the economy slows enough Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out even the Fed takes notice, the year Note yield should retreat back to where it was in July of 1. In this second scenario, the yield curve inverts despite the Fed's failure to consummate its Dot Plot plan.
While this may avoid an inversion of the yield curve, it would also siphon off capital from the private sector, as investors divert yet more money to the Treasury.
An aggressive selling of the Fed's balance sheet is a very unlikely scenario given the minutes of the May FOMC meeting. In that meeting the Fed decided to merely taper the re-investment of its balance sheet, which is the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out in that it stops reinvesting its assets.
Therefore, the only rational way to avoid an inverted yield curve, market chaos and a recession is if long-term Treasury yields reverse their long-term trend lower due to a rapid increase in GDP growth. This would only occur if Trump's agenda of repatriation of foreign earnings, tax cuts and infrastructure spending is imminently adopted.
But the probability of this happening very soon is getting lower by the day. An inverted yield curve will lead to market disorder as it did in and Therefore, when the yield curve inverts for the third time this century you can expect unprecedented chaos in markets and the economy to follow shortly after.
This is because the yield curve will not only invert at a much lower starting point than at any other time in history, but also with the Fed and Treasury's balance sheets already severely impaired.
There will be unprecedented volatility between inflation and deflation cycles in the future due to these factors. This represents a huge opportunity for those that can identify these inflexions points and know where to invest.
To be just a bit more specific, sell your long positions now and get short once the curve inverts; and then get prepared to hedge against intractable inflation when the Fed responds to this next collapse with helicopter money.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit rating recently to A1 from Aa3. The rational being that it expects the financial strength of the economy to erode, as GDP growth slows and debt levels continue to pile up. What is Beijing's response to the slowing economy Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out intractable debt accumulation Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out was just underscored by Moody's: China's One Belt One Road OBOR Initiative seeks to answer the age-old question of what a maniacal communist country does when they have exhausted the building of unproductive assets at home.
China hits the road and attempts to rebuild the ancient trade routes once called the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out Road; but in a much bigger way. The OBOR will attempt to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe by land and sea with state-of-the-art trading routes. The "belt" represents the "Silk Road Economic Belt," a path through Central Asia, Iran, Turkey and Eastern Europe. The "road" refers to the "Maritime Silk Road," which winds through South Asia, Africa and the Mediterranean.
The original purpose of the Silk Road was to connect China to Rome via the Middle East. During the time of the Emperors, the Silk Road was the main path that provided the exchange of goods and cultures connecting otherwise remote and inaccessible areas of the world.
Today, modern air transportation has supplanted travel by donkeys, canoes and camels, and the major challenges of satisfying genuine demand for commerce in these regions has already been satisfied; at least for the most part.
But the lack of genuine free-market demand for capital goods or fixed asset investments has never been a deterrent for China.
And it is no secret that the Chinese seek to gain the same dominance in these regions as the U. The problem for China is that the Marshall Plan was implemented by the United States at a time when the dollar had won the right to enjoy the world's reserve currency status.
Therefore, at the time of the Marshall Plan the world afforded the U. But in the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out of China, since it does not have the world's reserve currency, it must resort to capital controls and currency manipulation to keep the value of the yuan from depreciating significantly.
Despite this precarious and dangerous scheme, the two major Chinese Banks are jumping feet first into financing some of the poorest countries around the globe with sketchy credit in order for China to play Marco Polo. Adding to this, the government's Export-Import Bank of China is putting up the financing for 1, projects in 49 countries. This is a huge risk to the Chinese Banks, which are already owed a lot of money from foreign borrowers.
The Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out government is in a very difficult position. For years their economy was fueled by borrowing and printing money for the purpose of building unproductive fixed assets that do little in the way of generating sustainable GDP growth.
And now China's economic activity is expected to drop to 6. But the mirage of sustainable growth in China is being perpetuated by increasing the debt load and digging more holes, with the hopes of keeping the citizens placated and the current regime in power.
However, adding to the tally of Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out loans at this precarious juncture is nothing short of insane. Central banks continue to hold the fragile global economy together by monetizing debt and propping up asset bubbles in record proportions. Therefore, they will ultimately engender unprecedented currency, equity, bond and economic chaos worldwide.
Trump's economic agenda has become further delayed by what seems like daily leaks from the White House. This may finally bring about the long-awaited equity market pullback of at least 5 percent. However, what will prove to be far more troubling than Trump's ongoing feuds with the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out and the press, is the upcoming market collapse due to the removal of the bids from global central banks.
The markets have been feeding off artificial interest rates from our Federal Reserve and that of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan for years. In addition, the global economy has been stimulated further by a tremendous amount of new debt generated from China that was underwritten by the PBOC.
Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out it reached the saturation point of empty cities, China is now building out its "Belt and Road Initiative" that could add trillions of dollars to the debt-fueled stimulus scheme that has been spewed out over the world-wide economy. Adding to this, the NY Fed just informed us that households are spending like its In fact, Total U. The perma-bulls on Wall Street argue this willingness to take on debt demonstrates optimism among banks and consumers about economic growth.
Right now, the daily leaks out of the White House are sucking all the oxygen out of the room. But worse, they are delaying what Wall Street really needs to sustain the illusion of economic viability--a massive corporate tax cut that is not offset by eliminating deductions or Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out spending.
After all, the market is in a desperate need of a reason to justify these valuations now that the Fed has abandoned Wall Street—at least for the time being. But the truth is this das Hat Casino kann landet gewinnen Geld complacent and overvalued market has been susceptible to a correction for a very long time.
But just like Trump, it has so far behaved like it is coated in Teflon. North Korean Atomic bomb tests, Russia election interference, Trump's alleged obstruction of justice, an earnings recession, GDP with a zero handle; who cares? As long go here a tax cut could be on the way and global central banks keep printing money at a record pace, what could go wrong?
It is still unclear if the latest Trump scandal provides an opportunity to yet again overlook these salient facts and simply view this sell off as just another buying opportunity. However, in the longer term we believe that the inevitable exodus of Central Sechs Casino Royale mit Belmondo online zu sehen Hilfe manipulation of interest rates is going to bring chaos to the major averages, as it blows up the asset bubbles that have been underwritten by the mountain of new debt purchased by these same banks.
The Fed has ended its QE programs, for now, and is marching down the dangerous path of interest rate normalization. And the ECB will be Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out to follow shortly.
It is then that these bankers will realize that the record amount of debt they sponsored requires a record low level of debt service payments to keep the solvency source afloat. Once this 888 Casino-Spiele um echtes Geld bubble pops it will prove devastating for those investors that have been inculcated by central banks for decades that every single down tick in stocks is a buying opportunity, along with the mistaken and dangerous belief that active investing should have gone extinct long ago.
Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's book titled "The Courage to Act" is now available in paperback. This isn't a surprise because, after all, his proclivity to print paper encompasses the totality of what his courage to act was all about. The errors in logic made in his book are too numerous to tackle in this commentary; so I'll just debunk a few of the worst. But his misdiagnosis stems from a refusal to ignore the millions of fallow workers outside of the labor force that would like to work Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out given the opportunity to earn a living wage.
Bernanke also fails to recognize the surge of productivity from the American private sector that would emerge after the economy was allowed to undergo a healthy and natural deleveraging cycle. Also, the former Fed Chairman should learn a lesson from history. According to Former OMB Director David Stockman, the three-year stretch from to during the heart of the Reagan boom, growth in the U.
Reagan also enjoyed a rising dollar, falling inflation, lower taxes and tumbling interest rates. All that is needed to grow the U. Therefore, the best way to lift the economy out of its debt-disabled condition is to reverse Bernanke's foolish "courage to act" in regards to the record breaking and massive distortion of interest rates he imposed on the economy. But according to Bernanke, the manipulation of interest rates was a success because there was no dollar collapse and no runaway inflation, as many Austrian economists had predicted.
However, the only reason there was neither of each is that our major trading partners followed Bernanke's lead and performed the very same QE and ZIRP utilized by the Fed. Nevertheless, what Bernanke did create is a triumvirate of asset bubbles extant in bonds, stocks and real estate that cannot be undone without first crippling the economy.
And the Fed's allure of virtually-free money for eight years engendered the accumulation of a record amount of new debt that still needs to be unwound. Therefore, the primary retardant to growth isn't the current level of tax rates, unlike what the new Republican regime would like you to believe. The salient and impending danger lies in the precarious position of asset bubbles and leverage that will lead to unprecedented interest rate volatility and market chaos in the near future.
What Bernanke also appears happy to overlook is that our over-leveraged economy has eviscerated the American middle class by robbing savers; and saddling them with stagnant real wages and a reduced standard living.
Indeed, the truth is the Fed not only delayed a depression inbut also rendered the economy into a condition of perpetual stagnation. The economy only grew at 1.
Looking forward through the remainder ofwe find that commercial and Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out loan growth is rolling; over along with distress in student, auto and credit card assets.
And even the grossly distorted data from Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS is faltering. April BLS jobs data showed a sharp slowdown in the Household Survey to just k net new jobs created, down from the k figure in March. Studies have proven data from the Household Survey leads that of the Establishment Survey during inflection points of the economy.
This is what we see now; in addition to a global banking crisis that is already fracturing in China, Japan and in Europe. It's really just common sense; artificially-low interest rates, asset bubbles and over-indebtedness cannot be fixed by simply printing money like it is confetti. But the worst news is the efforts that began under Mr.
Bernanke have merely delayed the inevitable depression that will only be exacerbated by the increased precipice from which asset prices and debt levels must now fall. For those investors who have yet to Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out protection for their portfolios from the coming reality check, the courage to act is now. President Donald Trump has finally unveiled his broad blueprint for tax reform. Well, at least let's call it a sketchy outline of one. Even though Trump's proposed tax plan offers more questions than answers, what is clear is that the administration is no longer working off the pretense that tax reform will seek revenue neutrality.
Instead, it looks like Trump and the Republicans are leaning towards pretending that dynamic scoring of tax cuts will suffice for a revenue neutral plan. Here is the irony: But now we are hearing those same Republicans arguing that tax cuts will pay for themselves through growth. It's true that tax cuts will grow the economy, and allowing job creators to September Spielautomaten Schatzinsel Besenreiser more of their money is certainly a nobler way of blowing a hole in the deficit than the Obama plan of expanding transfer payments.
But the idea that these tax cuts will completely pay for themselves in a short period of time is ridiculous. First, let me be clear, I am for low taxes. In fact, in a perfect world the corporate tax rate would be zero. Corporations would be able to use more of its own profits to grow the business and pay the remainder out to shareholders in the form of stock buy-backs and dividends.
But given the proclivity to borrow from future generations by both parties, we are very far from a perfect world. Therefore, the goal should be to cut taxes and to cut spending now; with the objective being sustainable economic growth. And sustainable GDP growth can only be achieved by increasing the private sector while shrinking the public sector--and that can only be done by keeping the budget in balance.
But both parties appear incapable of cutting spending—especially showing any guts to tackle Social Security and Medicare. For the past eight years Republicans talked the talk about fiscal restraint and blamed the Obama presidency for the profligate spending and massive increase in debt. But now that the Republicans are in charge it is evident both groups like to spend money…just on different things.
And while Obama preferred Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out invest in failing alternative energy companies and Obama phones, Source are hankering for more spending on the military, a beautiful wall on our southern border and a litany of Ivanka Trump's latest pet-projects; such as paid maternity leave and combating climate change.
The party who once immersed themselves in the waters of fiscal austerity has suddenly developed an Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out to anything resembling fiscal rectitude.
This is true even before the passage of unpaid for tax cuts and the absurd assumption that there will not be a recession over the next 10 years. According to the CBO's baseline projections, growth in spending—particularly for Social Security, health care, and interest payments on federal debt— significantly outpaces growth in revenues over the coming ten years. This ratio would be a higher percentage than any previously recorded in the history of the United States.
Again, this dire scenario does not include any of Trump's deficit spending plans. Soaring deficits and debt would have serious negative consequences for the nation, leading to market and economic instability. Much higher interest rates will require significantly higher rates of taxes and inflation. This will ultimately rob even more capital from the private sector, which is exactly the recipe for how to kill an economy. The economy needs tax cuts that are accompanied by a huge reduction in government outlays.
The goal should be to boost the private sector while starving the public sector. The stock market clings to the hope that a deficit busting Tumpian tax cut gets passed into law very soon. However, if adopted it will prove correct the aphorism, "be careful what Bewertungen Casino Online-Spielautomaten 888 Casino wish for. While investors continue to cross their fingers and hope for a quick rescue package coming from D.
Fiscal and monetary restraint is needed Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out to bring reality back to markets and to produce robust Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out lasting GDP growth. Further destroying the nation's future with more economic gimmicks will only ensure that the inevitable depression will be much deeper.
The primary catalyst to keep investor confidence sky-high while stocks are fliting with the most expensive valuations in history is the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax relief plan. But one thing is for sure, the current tax changes being proposed by the President will morph over time and will be significantly watered down if it is ever to become law.
Therefore, since the final plan will be significantly diluted from the proposed form, its effect on the economy and for equity prices will be extremely attenuated. This means the current ebullience on Wall Street is about as far offside as possible.
This calls into question Wall Street's contention that record high stock valuations are being supported by a significant rebound in corporate profit growth. Click here according to the BLS, real GDP has only increased by 1. According to FactSet, the Energy sector is expected to be the largest contributor to Q1 earnings growth.
However, when comparing Q2 to Q2 it will look much different. This is because the favorable year-over-year comparison goes away. The Q2 oil price was in the upper 40's and that is where WTI crude Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out stands today.
Therefore, unless the oil price surges—and given the demand vs. And much like the energy sector, the outlook for this sector is a bit muted.
This is because banks' net interest margin is a crucial driver for earnings growth. Therefore, since banks get a significant earnings boost from the steepness of the yield curve, this doesn't bode well for the continued earnings power in this sector either.
The market has just one lifeline left and it is the imminent passage of massive tax cuts that have already been priced into stock prices. But that is a long shot at best; and would lead to a huge increase in deficits and interest rates that could offset any benefits. For now, investors are facing record high stock valuations that are levitating on top of Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out record amount of margin debt.
However, this equity bubble is simultaneously being undermined by near-zero percent GDP growth, a tightening yield spread, tepid EPS growth, bank loan growth that is rolling over, a record-high total debt to GDP ratio and a Fed that suddenly wants to fight inflation. This means the market is overripe for a significant correction and investors would be wise to position their portfolios to both protect and profit from the coming reality check that is inevitable to strike.
Wall Street and our central bank are in for Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out rude awakening very soon! The idea that the US economy is on stable footing and about Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out experience a surge in growth is ridiculous. Hence, the consensus that the Fed can normalize interest rates and its balance sheet is nothing short of a bad joke…and it's on them.
We all know there was no corporate tax reform passed. So the credible conclusion must be reached that corporations are not growing Black Jack Casino online Palace spielen Geld Spin profits…they are actually shrinking. This will happen to coincide with day of Trump's Presidency. Unfortunately, Trump resembles more Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out a swamp creature as the days go on. Sadly, he becoming a flip-flopping carnival barker that duped the American public into believing he was actually going to cause an earthquake in Washington that shook the government back down to its constitutional foundation.
He no longer wants a strong dollar and an end to Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out interest rate manipulations that has been robbing the middle class allein Glücksspiel Glücksspiel Spin Palace Casino mich its purchasing power for decades. Instead he's become a Yellen supporting, bubble blowing, XM bank funding, NATO backing, China loving, card carrying member of the neocons in D.
But even though Trump now loves low interest rates, the Fed has probably already tightened monetary policy enough to send stocks into a bear market and the already anemic US economy into recession. More proof of recession and deflation came from the economic data released on Good Friday: Housing starts, Empire State Manufacturing and Industrial Production have all recently disappointed estimates. Housing starts fell a very steep 6. Empire State Manufacturing dropped from The sad truth is Trump isn't draining the swamp…he's flooding it with more of the same swamp creature Casino-Land-Spielautomaten mit Bonus ohne Einzahlung Goldman Sachs that have mucked up D.
The mystery here is why the Fed is raising rates when Q1 GDP growth is just 0. Could it really be that Yellen realizes that savers must finally be rewarded for putting money in the bank? Perhaps she has come to the conclusion that asset bubbles must correct down to a level that can be supported by the free market. If only that were true. Wall Street and the Fed which is a charter member of the swamp club have been quick to explain this economic malaise away.
The floundering GDP growth is being explained by a perennially weak first quarter. March NFP growth of just 98k is excused by the bad weather that occurred during the survey weak.
And negative CPI is being brushed aside by what the Fed hopes are just temporary factors. But unless the data turns around quickly, the Fed's days of tightening monetary policy may have passed. The economy won't accelerate unless Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out is able to push through a massive tax cut very soon. But that doesn't look likely in the least. Most importantly, keep in mind, the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December when it began tapering QE.
Now, after three rate hikes, the economy is teetering on outright contraction and deflation. What all this warrants is extreme caution in Bubbleville.
With geopolitical risk flashing bright red, half percent GDP growth, record high equity valuations and a delusional Fed that continues threatening interest rate normalization; the market's reality check is surly imminent. Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity.
That assertion could Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out be further from the truth. The Grand Casino Online Casino is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December ofwhen it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing.
This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. And that the primary dealers would no longer be flooded with new money supply in the form of excess bank reserves. In other words, the Fed started the economy down the slow path towards deflation. One of the greatest economic indicators is the steepness of the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out yield curve. A steep curve indicates inflation and strong growth; whereas a flat yield curve is Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out of economic stagnation and deflation.
Therefore, the view that the Fed has been in tightening mode for the past three years can be proven by the fact that the spread between the 10 and 2-Year Note yield began to collapse on the very month that the Fed began to Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out QE.
That difference was basis points in Decemberbut narrowed all the way down to just 76 basis points by the summer of Then, after a small recovery to bps—mostly due to the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out caused by the election of Donald Trump—the spread is quickly retreating back towards bps.
It is no coincidence that the spread began to contract concurrently with the Fed's taper of QE. Tapering is indeed tightening, even though the Fed tends to believe in a stock versus flow analysis. But now, Chair Yellen and the other members of the FOMC have indicated that two or three more rate hikes during this year are a distinct possibility.
This is in addition spielen Spielautomaten für Geld already increasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps in both December of and March of this year. That process is scheduled to begin by the end of What this amounts to is a reverse QE program or Quantitative Tightening; where the Fed here only reduces the monetary base but also causes MBS and longer-dated Treasury yields to rise.
However, this tightening is occurring in the context of anemic and slowing growth. GDP growth expanded by just 1. Therefore, the Fed has most likely already tightened monetary policy enough to throw the economy into a recession. After all, the history of the Fed is marked by one that blows up asset bubbles and then crashes the economy source it removes its accommodation.
The yield curve is telling investors that raising the Fed Funds Rate when the March NFP growth was only 98k and Q1 GDP growth click at this page a zero handle, will cause the yield curve to invert and retard the growth rate of money supply to an even greater extent.
This makes perfect sense because raising the overnight interbank lending rate does not increase long-term rates unless growth and inflation are already running hot. Clearly, this is not currently the case. Once the Fed inverts the curve a brutal recession will be at the door. But our government will not have nearly as much ammunition to fight the economic contraction as it did during the Great Recession circa Hence, our government and central bank are already overleveraged.
Hence, this next recession will be a very remarkable one indeed. Yellen and Company may be blind to these dynamics, but investors do not have to be. Right on the heels of Donald Trump's stunning election victory, Democrats began to diligently work on undermining his presidency. That should surprise no one. It's just par for the course in partisan D. However, what appears to be downright striking is that the Keynesian elites may have found Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out new ally in their plan to derail the new President…the U.
First, it's important to understand that the Fed is populated by a group of big-government tax and Online-Gaming-Gerät Chicago liberal academics who operate under the guise of an apolitical body.
For the past eight years, they have diligently kept the monetary wheels well-greased to prop up the flat-lining economy. However, since the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out the Fed Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out done a complete about-face on rate hikes and is now in favor of a relatively aggressive increase in its Fed Funds Rate.
And I use the term relatively aggressive with purpose, because the Fed raised interest rates only one time during the entire eight-year tenure of the Obama Presidency. Technically speaking, the second hike did occur in December while Obama still had one full month left in office. But coincidentally, this only took place after the election of Donald Trump.
Keep in mind a rate hiking cycle is no small threat. The Federal Reserve has the tools to bring an economy to its knees and has done so throughout its history of first creating asset bubbles and then blowing them up along with the entire economy. Remember, it was the Fed's mishandling of its interest rate policy that both created and burst the real estate bubble. By slashing rates from 6. Then, it raised rates back up to 5. But during those eight years of the Obama Just click for source, the Fed barely uttered the words asset bubble.
In fact, it argued that asset bubbles are impossible to detect until after they have burst. But since the November election, the Fed's henchmen have suddenly uncovered a myriad of asset bubbles, inflation scares and an issue with rapid growth. And are preparing markets for a hasty and expeditious rate hike strategy.
In other words, trying to raise the level of long-term interest rates. In a recent interview, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren has suddenly noted that certain asset markets are "a little rich", and that commercial real-estate valuations are "pretty ebullient.
The Fed is tasked by two mandates, which are full employment and stable inflation. Therefore, a surge in inflation or GDP growth should be the primary reasons our Fed would be in a rush Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out change its monetary policy from dovish to hawkish. Some people may argue that the Fed has reached its inflation target and that is leading to the rush to raise rates, as the year over year inflation increase is now 2. The problem with that logic is that from April all Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out way through February the year-over-year rate of Consumer Price Inflation was higher than the 2.
Yet, Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out Fed did not feel compelled to raise rates even once. In fact, it was still in the middle of its bond-buying scheme known Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out Quantitative Easing. Perhaps it isn't inflation swaying Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out Fed to suddenly expedite its rate hiking campaign; but instead a huge spike in GDP growth.
But the facts prove this to be totally false as well. That was a lower growth rate than the years,; and only managed to match the same level as Well then, maybe it is a sudden surge in GDP growth for Q1 that is unnerving the Fed?
But again, this can't be supported by the data. The Atlanta Fed's own GDP model shows that growth in the first three months of this year is only growing at a 1. If it's not booming growth, and it's not run-away inflation and it's not the sudden appearance of asset bubbles…then what is it that has caused the Fed to finally get going on interest rate hikes?
The Fed is comprised of a group of Keynesian liberals that have suddenly found religion with its monetary policy because it Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out no longer trying to accommodate a Democrat in the White House.
Trump was correct during his campaign against Hilary Clinton when he accused the Fed of, "Doing Political" regarding its ultra-low monetary policy. Now that a nemesis of the Fed has become President…the battle has begun. The election of the 45th President brought with it great enthusiasm for the U. But the optimism behind Trump's economic agenda took a serious blow with the inability of House Republicans to even get a vote on repealing and replacing Obamacare.
According to current investor sentiment, supplanting the "Unaffordable Care Act" would expedite the passage of tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which would lead to a significant boost Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out GDP and inflation. This would in turn help to justify the incredibly large gap between stock prices and the actual economy. What's most amazing is Wall Street and government's infatuation with inflation.
Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out all, the Fed does not have a specific GDP target; but it does have an actual inflation target of 2 Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out. And if Trump's largess led to a huge increase in deficits, which would have to be monetized by the Fed, that would lead to an increase in the rate of inflation. But, with Trumponomics getting stuck in the mire of D.
Inflation occurs when the market determines that the purchasing power of a currency is going to fall. In other words, consumers and investors agree that the money supply will be diluted and will lose its value. This occurs when a central bank directly monetizes assets, or when private banks flood the market with new loans.
With this in mind, let's take a look at finde Spielautomaten mit iPhones alle chart of Commercial and Industrial Loan growth. The truth is there hasn't been any increase in demand from the business sector to take on new debt, despite the much-ballyhooed surveys about business confidence. What this means is that private banks are not expanding the growth rate of debt-based money supply. And in addition, the Fed is no longer expanding the size of its balance sheet.
In fact, it is preparing Wall Street for the outright selling of longer-dated Treasuries and Agency securities. Therefore, money supply growth is slowing and this is occurring while GDP growth remains very weak. 888 Casino-Online-Casino für Geld Rubel Bonus Ihre Anmeldung fact, the economy grew just 1.
The spread between short Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out long term Treasuries is narrowing. This means fixed income investors believe that the rate of inflation is going to fall and that the Fed could be in the process of inverting the yield curve and sending the economy into another recession.
Online-Casino-Geschichte addition, quiescence in commodity prices clearly illustrates that not only is global growth anemic, but inflation is not currently perceived to be an issue any time soon. After all, it is difficult to believe the synchronized global growth story being touted by Wall Street in the face of a sah Jackpot Stadt Rate von 500 Rubel nicht market in commodity prices.
These trends have been in place since the beginning of and have mich die Größe des Spielautomaten Ursache no signs of improvement since the election. Indeed, the election has only exacerbated these trends. Not because of anything the Donald has done; but because the Fed is in the process of ending its unprecedented distortion of interest rates. Unless the new Administration can ram through a massive deficit busting tax and infrastructure spending plan in the near future look for these deflationary trends to accelerate to the downside.
Perhaps for the first time in history stocks prices can levitate higher while the pending deflationary collapse of the economy continues to erode beneath them. But it would be a very foolish bet for investors to make. Surveys of both consumers Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out businesses show there is an extreme level of confidence regarding future GDP growth.
Consumer confidence is now at its highest level since Small and medium-sized business owners, Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out driving force of growth in the economy, appear downright giddy; as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index recently soared to its highest level since The Philly Fed Index, a survey that gauges how well manufacturers are feeling, hit its highest level since Business leaders are betting on tax cuts, infrastructure spending and a scale-back of onerous regulations that will, hopefully, make America great again!
But just as we were beginning to get tired of all this "winning", investors are also receiving a strong reality check from the actual hard data regarding the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out state of economic activity. The economy slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter of Gross domestic product increased at a lackluster 1. For all ofthe economy grew only 1. And despite all the good feelings about the current state of affairs, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, is forecasting real GDP growth at a learn more here adjusted annual rate in the first quarter of to come in at a pitiful 0.
The hype regarding the potential implementation of Trumponomics appears to be creating a trenchant gap between today's economic reality and hope about the future.
More evidence of this gap can be found in the January Durable Goods Report, which met expectations at 1. However, excluding aircraft, transportation equipment fell 0. Core capital goods showed a 0. This ends 3 months of strength for this reading and dispels the hope for a first quarter business investment boom suggested by the business confidence readings.
Unfilled orders were down 0. And we may need to start working on that wall right away if investors are to believe that confidence surveys will catch up with reality. Construction spending fell a sharp 1. The consensus was for construction spending to increase 0. Personal spending increased only 0. This brings into question whether upbeat consumers are putting their money where Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out mouths are. Inflation-adjusted spending fell 0. Also, Industrial Production for the month of February registered a big fat zero percent growth rate.
And how do you explain the recent drop in the CRB Index? An economy that is rapidly expanding should see a rise in commodity prices. In addition, the latest data on department store and retail sales is alarming. Retail sales increased by just 0. Yet despite any real evidence of actual economic growth, we have a stock market trading at all-time highs and a Fed that is determined to slam the brakes on "runaway" 0.
Continue reading Republicans in congress are in a battle with Democrats and Libertarians over raising the debt ceiling; and they can't seem to get out of their own way on health care and tax reform.
Hopefully, these employment and survey anecdotes are leading economic indicators that will turn out to have foreshadowed a leg up in GDP growth. Or, they could end up being the fleeting hiccups of hope in the new President that will end up sinking in the mire of D.
If the latter case proves to be correct, survey continue reading will soon reconcile with the persistent anemic path of a sub-par and grossly-injured economy that has been beset by asset bubbles and debt. The stock market has priced in perfection coming from the new Administration. Unless the Donald can put some tax and regulatory meat on the bones very soon, the stock market should suffer a huge fall.
The major averages continue to set record highs, which provides further evidence that Wall Street is becoming more complacent with the growing dichotomy between equity prices and the underlying strength of the U.
When investors view the Total market cap to GDP ratio, it becomes strikingly clear that economic growth has not at all kept pace with booming stock values in the past few years. The reason for this huge discrepancy is clear: Yet, during the same time period U. And this anemic state of GDP growth shows no signs of picking up steam, despite the hype and hope from Wall Street regarding the new President.
But what's even worse is the denominator in that market cap to GDP equation has been artificially supported by that same central bank QE and artificially-low interest rates. This distorted type of Fed-engendered economic growth comes from encouraging the accumulation of more debt through the process of making loans dirt cheap.
Indeed, the housing bubble economy of a decade ago was abetted by taking the Fed Funds Rate FFR to one percent from June June So what we have is an extremely dangerous situation indeed. While record high stock prices have become more detached from economic reality than ever before, the Fed has encouraged debt levels to surge to a record as well. And because robust growth has been absent, the level of the U.
As mentioned, this growth has been boosted from new debt issuance, and that debt compulsion is the result of QE and a zero interest rate policy ZIRP. But now ZIRP is in the process of going away. The last time the Fed began a rate hiking cycle was back in June of However, that spread between the FFR and the 10 year now stands at just bps.
Therefore, unless President Trump can pass his aggressive fiscal stimulus plan imminently, it is likely that the yield curve will flatten out much quicker Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out at any other time in history due to that currently tight spread. As the Fed continues to slowly raise rates, expect long-term rates to fall due to deflating stock and home prices, and a weakening economy.
The truth is it will probably only take a handful of rate hikes to cause the yield curve to resemble a very flat pancake. Why is that important? A flat or inverted yield curve has most often led to a recession and carnage in the stock market; just as it did prior to the huge collapse in equities during and In fact, the Fed has a long history of cycling between lowering rates Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out much, causing a steepening yield curve, then raising rates too quickly and flattening it out.
Only this go around, when short-term rates rise to meet long-term borrowing costs the ensuing recession will occur with Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out interest rates, unrivaled debt levels, unparalleled real estate prices and unprecedented stock prices.
Bond yields are, historically speaking, "in the basement" and the public and private sectors are already saturated in continue reading. Therefore, there just isn't much the government can do to encourage another round of debt http://maillotpsg2013.info/gluecksspiel-fuer-geld-in-casinos.php to pull the economy out of a death spiral, as it did in the wake of the Great Recession.
Yellen is convinced she can normalize interest rates with impunity during this current hiking cycle. President trump made the following crucial statement on February 9th: To get this accomplished means everything for the stock market. Without a reduction in tax rates the air Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out that has been blowing up equity prices Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out near Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out and unsustainable valuations will explode.
To be a successful investor requires the knowledge that there exists a strong nexus between economics and politics. In just a few short weeks we will get Trump's details on the tax plan. Understanding what form the tax Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out takes shape, or if there is any such plan enacted at all, is essential to your portfolio's health because it will have a huge effect global currencies, bond prices, commodities and equities.
Getting tax reform passed is going to be complicated and will involve the following issues that need to be hashed out: But the most important take away for investors is to determine which one of the following 3 scenarios the final plan entails: Trump http://maillotpsg2013.info/online-casino-fuer-internet-clubs.php through a simplification of the tax code that is done in a revenue neutral fashion through the use of a border tax adjustment or import tariffs.
This may be a preferable course for Trump and the Republican Congress to pursue because it can be accomplished through budget reconciliation, which only requires a simple 51 vote majority in the Senate. In theory, this would lead to a stronger dollar because our trade deficits would shrink. Bond prices should fall yields risebut only moderately due to rising import prices and a bit more growth resulting from tax simplification.
Stock prices should rise immediately after the passage of such reform but much of this has already been priced into shares. Precious metals could suffer from the rising dollar and the move into growth stocks. Finally, the Fed would remain on course for rate hikes during The second scenario is that Trump gets his tax overhaul done with the help of Democrats, which would require a 60 vote majority in the Senate. Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out the proposed reduction in corporate and individual tax rates were to be accompanied by infrastructure spending—especially the type that would be most amenable to Senate Democrats—he may get it through; even though he will lose the most fiscally conservative members.
The major investment takeaway from this scenario is that deficits would absolutely surge and that bond prices would crash. Equity prices would most likely rise in the short-term because trading algorithms are programed Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out love fiscal stimulus that is not offset by a reduction in write-offs. The dollar's value should get hurt by rising deficits but get a boost from the perceived rise in growth and the realized rise in bond yields.
Therefore, I find this scenario slightly dollar bullish. Precious metals would benefit from rising debt and deficits but would at the same time get hurt by rising long-term rates and the impetus of the Fed to increase its planned rate hikes to hikes. Although this is the least likely outcome it Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out still one that merits preparation.
The third possible outcome is that Trump's tax overhaul gets severely diluted, or that it cannot get passed through Congress. Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out market will perceive the paralysis in D. The investment strategy for this scenario is clear: Bond yields would crash along with the U.
But perhaps the most salient ramification for the inability to push through tax reforms will be that equity prices plummet just as precious metals soar. Why will stocks crash and gold skyrocket? Because the stock market rally is predicated on the hype and hope provided by President Trump that the U. Just how extended have stock market valuations become riding this anticipation of surging growth?
Even a retreat to 1. This is the same level as seen in and Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out higher than it was injust before the Great Recession began. The average 10 year trailing earnings PE ratio is just One last overvaluation metric to share. The total market cap to GDP ratio now stands at percent. The normal level is closer to 50 percent. The stock market stands at a precipice virtually unparalleled in history that absolutely requires radical growth measures to be adopted in order to keep the air flowing into this bubble.
Investors have to pay close attention to both the economics and the politics if you want to get your investment allocations correct. This has never been truer than now. In President Donald J. Trump's inaugural address he promised, "This American Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out stops right here and stops right now.
However, in a recent Bloomberg commentary, Justin Fox cites some sobering statistics that support Trump's statement. There were also 44, suicides in the U.
But it isn't just violent crime that has Beat Maschinen Online-Casinos recently Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out the U.
More than double the amount experienced in These morbid truths reveal the crux of this election. While Washington and the media elites were busy gloating about a falling unemployment rate, the overlooked carnage lay in plain sight. But it wasn't just the disturbing rise of unnatural deaths. If liberal elites ever bothered to land in flyover country they would have easily found another type of carnage…the evisceration of the middle-class.
There are two reasons for this decline. The Federal Reserve's money flowed mostly into stocks, bonds and real Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out, creating asset bubbles and inflation for the rich to enjoy.
While the middle class--who don't own nearly as many assets and spend much more of their disposable income on energy, food and shelter—became even poorer. The second is America's huge and persistent current account and trade deficits. The sad truth is that we haven't had a trade surplus since Nixon closed the gold window back in Unlike what most pundits like to argue, the money that is lost through our current account deficit and returns to us Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out a capital account surplus, is not merely an innocuous transaction.
The so called capital account surplus is really just the transfer to foreign ownership of U. But that's not the worst of it. That deficit is the result of high-paying manufacturing jobs leaving this country and turning the middle-class factory worker into a minimum wage Wall Mart 888 Geld Online-Casino Registrierung ohne Spielautomaten für. Inmore than a quarter of U.
Byonly one in 10 did. Therein lies the nucleus of the trade deficit and the demise of Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out middle class. But the middle class rout is not solely a result of companies moving plants overseas--often a company doesn't have to move locations to get cheap labor.
In October ofDisney, the self-proclaimed happiest place on earth, didn't make of their U. This transaction was facilitated by an outsourcing firm based in India. And Disney is not the alone; similar "outsourcings" have happened across the country. Businesses have been misusing temporary worker permits, known as H-1B visas, to place immigrants willing to work for less money in technology jobs based in the Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out States.
These visas are intended for foreigners with advanced science or computer skills to fill specific positions only when a similar skilled American worker cannot be found. But legal loopholes have allowed companies to circumvent the requirement to recruit American workers first and that guarantee capable American workers will not be displaced.
American blue and white collar workers have good reason to fear that globalization will result in the slow extinction of the middle class; setting the United States on a dystopic course where a small group of wealthy elite reign over a large class of workers without benefits, pensions, job security or a living wage.
This is the unrecognized pain that sat below the frequently-touted government data points on employment and GDP. And it is the carnage of the middle class that has abetted the dissolution of the American family, which in turn as led to the surge in homicides, suicides and drug overdoses in the United States. Washington and media elites have failed to listen to the forgotten man for decades.
Normalizing interest rates and enforcing fair trade agreements are absolutely mandatory for a middle class renaissance to take place. Even though the transition will be incredibly painful, it appears there is finally someone in the White House who will begin to address these issues. The hope and prayer is that he will have the courage to see it through. After many false promises and one false start, it is becoming evident that will be the year the Federal Reserve finally begins down the road towards interest rate normalization.
Http://maillotpsg2013.info/ist-es-moeglich-geld-in-den-jackpot-citye-zu-erhoehen.php, it is likely that Ms.
Yellen will cause bond yields to rise this year on the short-end of the yield curve. In Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out, soaring debt and deficits, along with the lack of central bank bond-buying, should send long-term rates much higher as well. Wall Street soothsayers, who viewed every Fed rate cut as a buying opportunity for stocks, are now busily assuring investors that the potential dramatic and protracted move higher in bond yields will be bullish for stocks as well.
Their theory holds that the price of stocks and bonds are negatively correlated, as one moves up the other moves down. Hence, the nirvana of a safely balanced portfolio is achieved by simply owning a fairly even distribution of both. Therefore, according to Wall Street, the end of the thirty-five-year bull market in bonds will be a welcomed event for equities. This myth has a name, and it's known as "the great rotation from bonds into stocks. The concept suggests that the investible market works like a balanced fund; as Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out moves out of bonds, it moves into stocks.
And of course, you could cherry pick cycles over the past few decades that would provide support for this opinion. For instance, the biggest rise in interest rates fall in price was from Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out to November During this time the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury rose from 8.
But when you take a Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out further back and look at the correlation between stock prices and bond yields since Nixon broke the gold window inyou quickly realize that there is no such positive relationship. In fact, most of the time stock prices and bond yields move in the opposite direction. As bond yields increased prices down during the stagflation of the 70's, stock prices went lower or simply stagnated.
Then, after Fed Chair Paul Volcker vanquished inflation in the early '80s, bond yields fell prices increased and stock prices went along for the ride.
This relationship makes perfect sense. An unstable economic environment of rising inflation and rising borrowing costs causes equities to suffer. Conversely, a healthy economic environment of steady growth and low inflation is beneficial for stocks.
Focusing more closely on the period where the U. But during that same ten-year period, for the most part, stock prices simply stagnated. By the end of the decade, the yield on the Benchmark yield had soared to Where did investors rotate their money during the 's? The "great rotation theory" would suggest all that money should have flowed into stocks. But, as money gushed out of bonds it went into commodities and cash.
Attesting that as money flowed out of bonds, it didn't compulsively move into stocks. Therefore, a better way to think about the long-term relationship between Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out and bonds is that the bull market in bond prices helped to foster the bull market in the major stock averages.
Or, that on average the stock market does better in a period of falling bond yields. Yet, Wall Street chooses to make the opposite argument to allay investors' fears as interest rates begin this huge secular move higher. Escalating bond yields will finally break the year trajectory of falling interest rates that has led to the decades-long bull market in the major stock market averages.
At what yield this line officially breaks is up for debate. Bond King Bill Gross has indicated that 2. This time around bond yields will initially rise for three reasons: And that sets us up for the real surge in bond yields—yes, we haven't seen anything yet. Rising borrowing costs should send our debt-saturated economy into a recession, which by the way Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out already way overdue. That recession, coupled with the massive fiscal and monetary response to it from President Trump—think massive deficit spending and helicopter money--should engender the second phase of soaring rates that will result Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out spiking inflation and soaring debt levels.
This unprecedented period of turmoil will once again prove that rising bond yields are seldom good for stocks, especially in real terms. And the bursting of this historic bond bubble certainly won't be the exception.
Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency.
The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive? A top priority of the Trump presidency will be a reduction in the tax rate for the repatriation of foreign earnings on U.
This is because American companies use some of this money for normal business operation overseas. However, the belief is that with a lower rate much of it will find its way back Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out. This could be a good thing, even though the last time this occurred the money went mostly for Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out buybacks and acquisitions.
But what is most misunderstood is the impact this transaction will have on the dollar. S multinational earnings are sitting in foreign currencies.
For example, when Apple Inc. Therefore, repatriated capital must be converted into dollars and that will provide an even greater boost to the greenback, which is already trading at a year high due to the trenchant difference between U. S bond yields and Fed monetary policy as compared to those overseas.
Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out is going to increase the negative effect on multinational companies that lose http://maillotpsg2013.info/die-besten-maschinen-auf-dem-geld.php currency translation when foreign click the following article are converted into dollars, and will offset to a great degree the positive effect of gaining access to that cash.
Next, Trump is set to reduce regulations from day one. And the regulation that Wall Street would like to see reduced substantially is the Wall Street and banking regulations know as Dodd-Frank, which includes the so-called Volcker Rule. This would free banks to lend more money and is one of the primary reasons why Wall Street is now so enamored by Mr.
Adding to this ist Ich spiele Online-Casinos um echtes Geld unmittelbaren redux link the potential dismantling of the Environmental Protection Agency the "EPA".
President-elect Trump has selected an EPA Administrator who is known for his vigorous opposition of a multitude of EPA regulations. These regulations are stifling growth and their abrogation would supply a boost to energy and manufacturing. But what the stock market hasn't factored into its equation is that there will be a whole new set of regulations for companies.
For example, Trump has floated the notion of withdrawing from NAFTA and imposing a border tax on imports. Corporation outsources its manufacturing or labor resources overseas it may face some combination of fines, tariffs Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out taxes. This will negatively impact the margins of multinationals that produce products more cheaply overseas and could also result in a massive tax increase for American consumers. Then we have Trump's humongous Infrastructure vision that is set to include a great wall on our southern border with a beautiful door.
Trump is also getting pushback from deficit hawks, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and the remnants of the Tea party in Congress. Even Trump's appointee to the director of the Office of Management and Budget, Rep. Mick Mulvaney, is considered a hard-liner against deficit spending and would rather shut down the government before extending the national debt.
Trump is hoping to get the private sector on board. This may be a great idea, but one has to ask: After all, funds have been made available for virtually free for the past eight years thanks to the Fed.
And, since the private sector will only be interested in projects that can actually make money, will consumers now pay to drive on newly paved roads that used to be free, and won't they also balk at paying tolls on bridges to nowhere?
Also, if spending money on infrastructure was the pathway to prosperity, why has the Japanese economy been in a perpetually funk for decades; and how is it that the ghost infrastructures of China's bubble economy are now crumbling under the weight of capital flight and a falling yuan?
The reason why government-directed infrastructure spending doesn't produce viable growth is that the money is just borrowed from the private sector from funds that would have been spent anyway--but in a much more productive manner.
And massive deficit spending doesn't stimulate the economy unless it is financed by the central bank. But this type of temporary and unbalanced "stimulus" eventually comes at the costs of higher inflation and spiking interest rates.
Nevertheless, Trump's infrastructure plans will come at a time when the Fed is raising rates, not reducing them. Therefore, surging borrowing costs will occur immediately and actually Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out up reducing GDP from the start. Finally, at the heart of the Trumpian hype and hope are tax cuts for both the corporate and personal sectors.
Tax cuts do incentivize growth. However, Paul Ryan has indicated that he wants to simplify the tax code by lowering rates a nd eliminating deductions; with the net effect read more revenue neutral and keeping the effective tax rate the same.
A simplification of the tax code is still a good thing, but this is not going to have anywhere near as big an effect on the economy as the Reagan tax cuts, which reduced the rate by 20 percentage points on the top tier. The Trump Presidency has the potential to be bullish for the economy in the long run. However, the bottom line is GDP is a function of a growing labor force and productivity enhancements.
It's hard to imagine Trump will open the floodgates to immigration; and it takes time for tax cuts and reduced regulations to spur innovation. Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out there exist some serious headwinds to this economy and massively overvalued stock market in the near term. The most troubling of Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out are the surging U. Of particular saliency is the pressure put Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out China and the emerging markets due to these factors, which is expediting capital flight.
In fact, interest rates are surging across the globe. For example, the Chinese Year bond yield recently surged the most on record 22 basis points in one day to 3. Currency and interest rate chaos will act as kryptonite for the overleveraged economy of China, whose economic growth has accounted for one third of total growth worldwide since the Financial Crisis.
One of the other early casualties of Trumponomics could be the President elect's beloved real estate sector. The typical fixed rate on a year mortgage has risen to around 4.
Because of this, U. In addition, groundbreakings for new homes in November fell by History has clearly proven that systemic bubbles never break smoothly or harmlessly. And the epic worldwide bond bubble will not be the exception to the rule. Therefore, before any of the positive moves from the new Trump Administration can take hold it could run smack into a bond market and currency crisis in early The stock Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out has already priced in Tumponomic perfection before he has even placed his hand on the bible.
While that could spell huge trouble for markets and the economy in the short-run; it could also be a great opportunity for sage investors that are prepared to profit from the tumult.
Amid a worldwide financial crisis during that year, they managed to grow their economy by 8. As investors sat on empty real estate, debt levels in the shadow banking system rose to troubling levels. A real estate bubble of this magnitude would bring most economies to the brink of destruction. But fear not; the megalomaniacs in Beijing had a solution: And to accomplish this, 40 online brokerage lenders helped arrange more than 7 billion yuan worth of loans for stock purchases.
With markets in free-fall, the totalitarian regime made daily policy modifications in a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding. But eventually, the central planners stepped in and stemmed the market's decline.
However, the nation was far from out of the woods. Once a model of fiscal prudence, China became a country swimming in debt and asset bubbles. In October ofdebt levels for consumers hit Of course, supporting the rotating carousel of real estate, commodity, and stock bubbles, while also trying to stem bond defaults, comes at a cost. All Geld verdienen that debt and money creation usually results in a decimated currency.
However, China uses its currency reserves held mostly in dollar denominated Treasuries to keep the value of the yuan from Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out too quickly. In fact, Japan just superseded Russisches Tod Geld Roulette oder as the largest holder of U.
Adding to pressure on the yuan is the newly elected U. Pushing even further Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out on the yuan are the threatened three Fed rate hikes scheduled for In January, Chinese citizens will get an even lower quote from Beijing for exchanging their local currency into foreign dollars.
Many believe this will create a repeat of the market chaos that ensued at the start ofas Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out outflows surge. Scotiabank Vice President of Economics, Derek Holt, believes these fears Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out warranted.
He said in a recent article: Allow the yuan to intractably fall, which will increase capital flight and destroy its asset-bubble economy. Or, raise interest rates to stabilize the currency and risk collapsing asset bubbles that will crumble under the weight of rising debt carrying costs.
China embodies a Keynesian dystopia that results from central planning gone mad. The misguided belief any government can print unlimited amounts of money and issue a massive amount of new credit; while providing the conditions that are the antitheses necessary for viable growth, has one significant Achilles heel: Currency is always the pressure valve that explodes in an economy that has reached the apogee of dysfunction.
Therefore, China and the yuan may have finally run out of time. In I wrote a book called "The Coming Bond Market Collapse", in that book I predicted that the bond market would begin to collapse by the end of Clearly, this prediction has started to come true. However, in all candor, I never dreamed that the Ten-year Treasury yield would plummet to 1.
Neither did I ever imagine that over thirteen trillion dollars' worth of global sovereign bonds would have a negative yield, as was the case this past summer. The Book's assumption was that the bursting of the bond bubble would be caused by a change in global central banks' monetary policy or through the eventual achievement of their inflation targets.
At this juncture—at least in the U. This begs the question: The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget an independent organization estimates that Trump's tax plan will add 4. Adding to this we have borrowing costs on the rise. Given that the National Debt was financed at an average rate of 2. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office sees the annual tab for interest on the debt doubling between now and Then we have Donald Trump's massive one trillion-dollar, ten-year infrastructure plan.
Therefore, assuming much of Trump's fiscal plans get passed in the first days in office, the back-of-the-envelope estimate for would be: You don't need a master's degree in math to conclude that deficits could increase to well over one trillion dollars rather early in his administration. But that's not all; we have another risk that could add to the deficit. The current business cycle has been the longest economic expansion since WWII.
The Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out expansion is 38 months, and the current one is already 90 months in duration. Therefore, a recession sometime in is more than overdue. Data from the Treasury shows that China, the largest owner of US government debt, has cut its holdings every month between May and September of this year. And this was before Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out infamous phone call from Taiwan's Prime Minister to the President Elect and any Twitter war Trump may start with China.
Therefore, not only is the Fed Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out to resume its tightening cycle come December 24th, but the bond market will have to absorb China's liquidation of its stash of Treasuries as well.
In fact, the only condition still preventing the bond market from an immediate implosion is the QE coming from the European Central Bank ECB and the Bank of Japan BOJ. However, the ECB has just indicated that it will reduce its bond purchases starting March And In Japan, Hakubun Shimomura, a senior member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party said recently, "If the yen weakens too much, import prices go up. I hope the yen doesn't get much cheaper than its current level. But the bottom line is there's no way the current total of QE coming from the ECB and BOJ can offset the awakening from the year old comma of bond vigilantes.
This means; corporate debt, municipal bonds, REITs, CLOs, student and auto loan securities, bond funds, the real estate Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out, all dollar-denominated foreign debt and equities will fall concurrently along with the global economy. All this should occur while the multi-hundred trillion dollar interest rate derivative market gets blown to smithereens.
Simplifying the tax code and reducing regulations are necessary steps in restoring America to greatness. But by no means will Trump's economic plans offset the bursting of an epic bond bubble that was 35 years in the making. Nor will protectionist trade policies and massive deficit spending rectify the economic imbalances manifest from 8 years' worth of artificial credit offered for free. Therefore, equity risk premiums are inexorably dropping towards the flat line.
On election night, as political analysts were coming to terms with the possibility of a Trump presidency, the Dow Jones futures plummeted over points, and Japan's benchmark Nikkei plunged more than 6. Investors across the country went to sleep with nightmares of protectionism Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out Trade Tariffs 2.
But by the start of trading on November 9th, Dow futures had recouped most of their losses, and http://maillotpsg2013.info/die-geld-von-der-karte-casino-landa.php didn't take long for the erstwhile despondent equity markets to turn sharply positive.
America reached a sudden epiphany that it perhaps had elected a pro-growth champion in the White House with an obsequious Republican Congress. Therefore, for those on Wall Street it became once again "Morning in America.
The earnings rebound for equities had been predicated on a falling USD and an oil price rebound. Most importantly, markets had relied upon the Fed's provision of artificially-low interest rates as far as the eye can see. The dollar index has risen from According to Reuter's, interest rates on the year fixed mortgage averaged 3. Rates on the year Fixed-rate and Five-year adjustable-rate mortgage rose to their highest levels since March. This has already started to take its toll on mortgage refinancing, as the MBA's weekly measure of application activity for refi's fell This is soon to be exacerbated when the Fed resumes its rate hiking mode in December.
But it's not just interest rates in the U. But the perma-bulls on Wall Street, who first warned that a Trump presidency would be a disaster, now believe that a drastic rise in rates around the world will be ameliorated by a bit more growth here in the United States sometime in the future. But the President's protectionist trade policies and massive deficits will be an offset to much of his growth measures. And while relief on taxes and regulations is something to celebrate, as of now, not one dollar of taxes has been cut, not one regulation has been reduced, and not one shovel for a "shovel ready job" has been purchased.
The point is that rising rates could send the anemic U. As the significant correction in EM shares immediately following the election is foreboding tough times are ahead for these nations that are strapped with huge amounts of dollar denominated debt.
But perhaps the most important point to remember is that during the Regan Revolution, which started back in the early 's, morning in America didn't come overnight. It took time for those harmful Keynesian fiscal and monetary policies to work themselves through the system.
It took almost two years for that imbalance to rectify, and for dawn to break for both the economy and equities. But today's imbalances are far greater than what was extent in The first recession occurring between January and July mit Erdbeeren Online-Casino the other from July to November of However, the top tax rate currently sits at Therefore, tax reductions, although good news, will not have the same effect as it did in the 80's.
This is because marginal rates will only fall a few percentage points on those job creators, rather than the 20 percentage points enjoyed under Regan.
Furthermore, debt levels as a percentage of GDP back during the Regan Revolution pale in comparison to those of today. A rapid increase in interest rates will make the cost to service debt extremely onerous.
Add to this the massive amount of infrastructure spending http://maillotpsg2013.info/roulette-ohne-anlagen-auf-den-rueckzug-des-geldes.php Trump has proposed and we are likely to see much larger deficits and eventually much weaker GDP growth. Finally, as seen in the chart below, stocks began the decade of the 80's with a very modest price to earnings multiples and therefore had a lot of room to run.
It's less likely that Trump's "Morning in America" will be as favorable for stocks give today's lofty PE's. The stock market is a forward-looking indicator. And while it is uplifting to see it anticipate better news for the economy, investors should understand that a massive bubble in the bond market isn't going to unwind with impunity—especially in light of the already overvalued stock market and the huge increase in leverage ratios that exist today.
That truth extends to most asset classes and the global economy. Trump may end up turning Mourning in America to Morning…but a surging interest rates may bring Midnight first. What kind of President will Donald Trump be? Will he restore America to its former position of greatness, or end up being feckless like a long list of his predecessors? That is yet to be determined. However, what is clear now is if Donald Trump wants to avoid starting his tenure with an economic crisis similar to that of Mr.
Obama he will need to put a lid on long-term interest rates rather quickly. And in order to do that he will have to convince a supposedly politically-agnostic Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, to not only refrain from further interest rates hikes but also to launch another round of long-term Treasury debt purchases known learn more here Quantitative Easing QE.
The move higher in Treasury yields since the election of Trump has been nothing short of violent, but borrowing costs were already on the rise prior to November 8th.
The Ten-year Note Yield began its ascent after it bottomed at 1. This is because central bankers arrived at a new conclusion: The Ten-year yield climbed up to 1. But why is the election of President Trump so bad for bond prices? The answer is twofold. Ein spielen online Geldmaschinen Bühne, Trump's pro-growth policies of lower corporate and personal taxes, in addition to reduced regulations, are causing investors to sell fixed income products and to place funds in equities.
Growth stocks simply offer the potential for better returns than the current historically-low yields found in bonds. Enormously growing deficits, which will add to the intractable National debt, tends to force a central bank into an ultra-loose monetary policy.
A central bank that vastly increases the money supply, one that far transcends the legitimate pool of savings, is the tool used by governments to keep interest rates from skyrocketing.
This has been the recipe for runaway inflation since the beginning of economics. Hence, inflation is on the way. The incredible nearly 50 basis point surge in the Benchmark Treasury yield in the immediate wake of the election is proof of Trump's fiscal profligacy and his inflationary impact on the nation.
The end of the year-old bond bull market is upon us. Trump's trade policies, along with his avowed love of debt, is putting significant upward pressure on borrowing costs.
The Donald will now try to convince Janet Yellen to reverse her incipient tightening policy and bring rates back to zero—and eventually even to launch QE IV. If rates continue to rise it won't just be bond prices that will collapse. It will be every asset that has been priced off that so called "risk free rate of return" offered by sovereign debt.
The painful lesson will then be learned that having a virtual zero interest rate policy for the past 90 months wasn't at all risk free. All of the asset prices negative interest rates have so massively distorted including; corporate debt, municipal bonds, REITs, CLOs, equities, commodities, luxury cars, art, all fixed income assets and their proxies, and everything in between, will fall concurrently along with the global economy.
For the record, a normalization of bond yields would Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out very healthy for the economy in the long-run, as it is necessary to reconcile the massive economic imbalances now in existence.
However, President Trump will want no part of the depression that would run concomitantly with collapsing real estate, equity and bond prices. But the problem is he will be asking Ms. Yellen to do the exact thing he accused her of doing during the campaign. Namely, being a political puppet of the President. If the Fed is truly apolitical, she will politely refuse.
Nevertheless, what Yellen and Trump don't understand is that our nation is both debt-disabled and asset-bubble addicted, which requires interest rates to be near zero percent or the whole ersatz economy will Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out. The devastating bond bubble's collapse will bring Trump to that reality very soon. Yellen doesn't agree to pick up the speed on the printing presses she may hear the words "Your Fired", even before her tenure is up in February Since most everyone is focused on the upcoming U.
So, if you just glanced at the headline GDP number of a 2. However, to put that number in perspective, average GDP growth over the past four quarters was only 1. So before you get out your party hats and declare this economic malaise over, there were a few notable concerns in that Q3 GDP report. First off, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.
Also, spending on durable goods fell three-fold from Q2 levels. Third-quarter growth was also flattered by a buildup in business inventories, as re-stocking shelves added 0. And after flatlining in the second quarter, trade contributed an impressive 0. Was the surge in exports a sign of a U. A surge in soybean shipments dispatched to meet the insatiable appetites of Chinese hogs helped to shrink the trade deficit this quarter, as bad weather destroyed crops in Http://maillotpsg2013.info/online-spielautomaten-krone.php and Brazil the world's largest exporters leaving U.
Taking out Communist China's dictum to increase the hog herds, and that inventory build-up for a consumer who won't show up due to soaring Obamacare premiums and the incipient recession, GDP growth would have been just 1. Thus, confirming that the languishing growth rates we have grown accustomed to since the Great Recession are taking a further move down.
But if you believe the pundits that think GDP growth is about to accelerate on a worldwide basis, think again. The most import reason why global growth is about to turn even lower is borrowing costs have started to spike worldwide on that enormous mountain of record debt. This is because global central banks have come to a brief—but surely temporary--period see more sanity, in their epiphany that there are negative ramifications to endless counterfeiting.
But despite all that manipulation of markets, Japan's central bank has now admitted it will not be able to reach its inflation target until the spring of Most importantly, Japan's central bank has shifted its focus from achieving its inflation target, to just steepening the yield Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out. The BOJ is now seeking to boost long-term borrowing costs rather than simply try to push the entire yield curve lower.
Koichi Hamada, an economic adviser to Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, went on record saying that the BOJ is "at the end of the road. And of course, the Federal Reserve ended QE in October of and is now learn more here to raise interest rates for the second time in the last ten years come December 14th.
This change in central bank monetary strategy means that although global bond yields have yet to soar, it is also clear they are no longer falling. And perpetually falling interest rates has been the corner stone to this phony economic recovery. Debt loving governments and inflation enamored central bankers have ironically been able to push yields to zero percent and under, so they were already as low as they can go.
And now bankrupt sovereign governments--and the debt that they issue--are running smack into the next recession, which the money printers have nothing to offer other than to resident 777 spielen Spielautomaten more QE.
That is the Spielautomaten König Ukraine zu spielen to economic chaos rather than viable GDP growth. The air underneath stock prices is indeed getting very thin at these altitudes. According to none other than Goldman Sachs, median stock prices are positioned at the 97th percentile of historic valuations. Other metrics such as Median PE ratios, Market Price to Sales and Total Market Cap relative to GDP all validate the extremely overvalued condition of U.
In order to justify these near-record valuations, analysts are once again predicting a J-curve in earnings Krampfadern Casino online sehen hd 720 Duplikat Mutter for next year. According to FactSet, earnings growth for the index so far in the third quarter of has a source increase of just 1.
And even if earnings http://maillotpsg2013.info/club-jackpot-city-online-slots-jackpot-city-casino-club-spielen-auf-100r.php to produce a small single digit rise in year-over-year earnings growth for the first time in the past one and one half years, it would hardly support near record market valuations.
But the news coming out of multinational conglomerates so far this quarter proves EPS won't even come close to that Wall Street earnings fantasy. General Electric lowered its revenue growth and narrowed its profit forecast for the year. The multi-national industrial giant noted its revenue rose less than expected, to just 1 percent in the quarter.
The company also trimmed its full-year revenue forecast, now expecting revenue to be flat to 2 percent growth. Manufacturer Dover DOV cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts, citing a weak global economy.
On their conference call they noted, "The primary factors driving this revision are generally weaker capital spending across several industrial end-markets…". PPG Industries, who makes paints and coatings for the construction and other markets, said it was, "disappointed with this quarter's EPS growth rate as we continue to operate in a sluggish economic environment with no clear near-term catalyst Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out improving global GDP growth. The company cited listless demand for heavy machinery in its core markets due to a slowdown in construction and mining activity.
For the past few quarters Caterpillar has suffered from a weak mining industry, low oil prices, stronger U. In addition to all this, its third-quarter profit was cut in half due to the global economic slowdown that the company expects to extend into next year. And finally, if you needed more proof, YRC Worldwide Inc. There are many more examples of Online-Casino-Skript shortfalls, and to be sure, not all companies reported bad numbers.
Nevertheless, these earnings and revenue warnings regarding current and future global economic weakness from multinational industrial giants should not be ignored. But it is not just multinational industrial conglomerates that point to a lack of earnings growth. There are numerous examples of weakening revenue and earnings--along with projections of further weakness—across various enterprise sectors.
It may have been acceptable for investors to maintain hope for a huge earnings rebound as long as the epic bond bubble was still Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out yields fallingthe dollar stopped rising, oil prices were well on their way back toward triple digits and the Fed had your back. However, this is no longer the case.
Long-term interest rates have been rising sharply Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out the globe due to the new central bank strategy of steepening their respective yield curves. And, as mentioned, the weakening multinational earnings picture has not yet dissuaded the Fed from recommencing its rate rising campaign come December 14th.
When near record-high market valuations slam into slowing global growth, Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out interest rates on both the long and short end of the yield curve the Slots 888 Casino Auszahlungen mit the epiphany reached by investors that there will be no robust or sustainable earnings rebound, it will lead to the end of this equity bubble. A prudent investor should listen to the message of markets not the perpetually-inane optimism of Wall Street analysts.
This selloff in stocks should continue until our inflation-loving central bank returns to the printing press with the futile hope that a rising CPI will bail out the economy. And even though stock prices may then catch a bid, expect the chances of viable economic growth and a strengthening middle class to fall further down the cesspool. The accumulation of Debt, at its very essence, is simply borrowing consumption from the future.
And this is true on any level of debt, be it either public or private. Just as savings is deferred consumption, the exact opposite is true for debt. Therefore, it can only be beneficial in the long-term if it leads to an expansion of productivity in the present. If the funds borrowed do not improve output per Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out of labor it is much more difficult to pay back that debt and any perceived benefit ends up being nothing more than an ephemeral illusion.
This is the reason why public debt is the most pernicious variety. The problem with government spending is that it mostly amounts to little more than hole-digging and filling. Borrowing money to pay people to empty the ocean onto the beach may temporarily increase employment and demand in the economy.
But since this is merely state directed busy work, it does not grow the economy and expand productivity. Thus, the result is a rise in the debt to GDP ratio. The financial crisis led to the passage of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, referred to as TARP, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and a rapid increase in government transfer payments, which produced multiple years of record deficits.
Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out accumulation of those deficits sent the U. The Keynesians promised us that all this debt would eventually lead to robust and sustainable growth. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U. However, real GDP for the third quarter ofas modeled by the Atlanta Fed, is set to come in at just 2. This is historically a very sub-par growth rate. With the second quarter of GDP coming in at 1.
And while fiscal spending was unable to provide viable economic growth, Central bankers have also failed in the same endeavor. Since their monetary plans have failed, central bankers now want to hand off the responsibility of growth back on the fiscal authorities… as if this was somehow a brilliant new idea. Deficit spending is not a new concept in Washington DC or around the world and it hasn't moved the needle on growth.
And then we have Japan, the island nation has spent the past 25 years deploying one government stimulus program after another to no avail. If government debt, a. The truth is Government debt amounts to nothing more than a gigantic misallocation of capital that brings along with it future anemic GDP growth, higher interest rates, and greater inflation. Perhaps this is the real reason behind the persistent lowering of global GDP growth rates.
Nevertheless, this hasn't stopped the Keynesian manipulators such as the Fed's Vice Chair Stanley Fischer from claiming, "Some combination of…improved public infrastructure, better education, and more effective regulation is likely to promote faster growth of productivity and living standards. Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out both presidential candidates have lofty spending Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out In this carousel, or ping pong match, between monetary and fiscal stimulus it looks like the ball has now landed on the fiscal side of the court.
But we shouldn't pretend that government stimulus hasn't already been tried in a big way and with negative results, or that the results will be different this time. The endgame will be the unholy marriage between fiscal and monetary stimulus in the form of direct monetization of massive government debt. This too has been tried before…and the http://maillotpsg2013.info/spiele-online-casinos-in-russland-1.php result has always been intractable inflation and economic chaos.
It is finally going to be a make or break earnings season for stocks. This is because the justification for Geld Spielautomaten für Mindestsätze high stock prices that have been perched atop extremely stretched valuation metrics has been the following false assumptions: But even if they were perpetually disappointed in growth and earnings that didn't materialize, they could always afford to wait until the next quarterly earnings report because there just wasn't any alternative to owning Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out. However, if earnings come in weak for the current quarter—which would be the 6th quarter in a row—that disappointment would occur in the context of a rising U.
In other words, it would be game over for the equity bubble. After all, market pundits have placed nearly all of the blame for the negative earnings string on a crashing oil price and a spiking U. However, during the 3rd quarter the WTI Crude price and the dollar were both very stable. Therefore, if earnings don't bounce back now how can they be expected to improve in Q4 and beyond, especially while the Fed re-commences its hiking cycle, which should Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out the dollar to rise and commodity prices Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out fall once again?
So how does the earnings season look so far? In the case of worldwide lightweight metals producer Alcoa, down Multinational industrial giant Honeywell's CEO Dave Cote said last week that Jet engine service orders, scanners, and logistic and shipping services simply failed to materialize in September. His warning and comments sent the shares down 7. The company further sited worsening growth in the Middle East, Russia and China. The free pass on overhyped stock Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out is now over.
The low on Treasury yields is most likely behind us. In fact, the Ten-year Note yield has risen from 1. Indeed, interest rates are rising across the globe as central bankers now believe higher long-term rates and a steeper yield curve are necessary for Casino Land Rate als die Cash-out healthy banking system.
And the Fed has similarly duped itself into believing asset prices are not in a bubble and that borrowing costs can normalize without hurting equity prices and economic growth. However, both assumptions are extremely far removed from reality. The truth is this protracted economic and earnings malaise—that shows no sign of turning around--coupled with record high stock prices and the reversal of a nearly decade-long zero interest policy on the part of the Fed is clear: The reversal of the central bank's trickle down wealth effect should cause a recession to hit the economy hard by the middle of But this next bear market and recession may once again lead to a change in monetary policy on the part of the Fed.
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